The Need
Assumptions underpin most corporate plans and decisions and yet few are thoroughly identified, documented and managed. As a result:
- To their detriment, some plans and decisions are at least partly based on false or inaccurate assumptions
- When the key assumptions are not documented and monitored, subsequent changes that invalidate those assumptions may go unnoticed.
Assumptions that are false or inaccurate, either initially or that subsequently become so without the implications being noticed, are a major cause of serious strategic and operational failures.
Our studies have shown that organisations are particularly vulnerable to making false assumptions when they are under great pressure, for example when handling a crisis for which they are unprepared.
How DBRC can help
DBRC assists with the identification, monitoring and management of critical assumptions, particularly in major initiatives, challenges and projects.
The core process of identifying key assumptions utilises a structured workshop.
Assumptions are evaluated and documented using our dynamic influence modelling) process. This graphically models factors such as:
- the context of each assumption
- the decisions and actions that it has influenced
- Initial and current confidence in the assumption
This model becomes a key tool in ongoing monitoring and corrective action.
For handling assumptions during a crisis, our dynamic crisis handling process, designed to achieve clear thinking and support management decisions in times of crisis pressure, places great emphasis on identifying, challenging and documenting crisis assumptions.